2015年全球贸易形势并未明显改善，2016年上半年全球货物贸易量虽呈现温和回升，但与4月WTO预测的2.8%的全年增速仍相距甚远，以致9月WTO将此下调为1.7%。世界经济复苏依然乏力，全球贸易增长仍面临减速风险的局面越来越明显。我们判断，2016年全球货物贸易增速能追平2015年的可能性较小，贸易量增长率将不会超过2%。在未来一个时期内，全球贸易发展的风险仍将是经济下行的掣肘，预计2017年全球贸易增速将在2.5%左右。全球贸易提振需要切实的贸易增长战略和有效的经贸治理方案。G20杭州峰会通过的《G20全球贸易增长战略》，为促进全球贸易和经济可持续发展指明了方向。此次峰会提出构建创新、活力、联动和包容的世界经济，以此鼓励G20成员积极参与国际经贸治理，为提升全球经贸发展活力贡献力量。
In 2015，the global trade did not improve significantly. In the first half of 2016，the increase of global merchandise trade was still moderate，and was much lower than the annual growth rate 2.8% predicted by WTO in April. Therefore，WTO reduced it to 1.7% in September. The recovery of world economy is still quite weak. The global trade growth still tends to slow down. We think that the global merchandise trade growth in 2016 may not reach the level of that in 2015，and the trade volume growth rate will be less than 2.0%. The development of global trade will be constrained by the economic downturn for a prolonged time. We estimate that the growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2017 could be around 2.5%. The improvement of global trade needs concrete growth strategy and effective trade governance measures. G20 Global Trade Growth Strategy passed by G20 Hangzhou summit will promote the sustainable development of global trade and economy. The summit proposed to build an innovative，invigorated，interconnected and inclusive world economy to encourage G20 members to participate in the governance of international trade and contribute to the vitality of global trade and economy.
