2016年拉美地区经济增长预计为-0.9%,连续两年出现负增长。从内部来看,投资和消费双双萎缩造成国内需求下降;从外部来看,全球经济放缓造成外部需求不足,而大宗商品价格走低则令拉美经济雪上加霜。与此同时,拉美地区各国还普遍面临通货膨胀高企、汇率波动加剧、就业状况恶化等风险,经济不确定性进一步增大。投资大幅萎缩已成为拉美地区经济衰退的重要原因,企业投资信心不足、融资成本高企、大宗商品价格低迷、政府财政状况恶化等因素将继续对该地区投资形成抑制,这也决定了拉美地区经济在短期内将难以恢复到以前的高速增长态势。
Latin American economic growth rate is expected to be -0.9% in 2016,witnessing negative growth for two consecutive years. From the internal point of view,the domestic demand contracted due to the fall in investment and consumption,from the external point of view,the external demand weakened caused by the slowdown of global economy,and lower commodity prices made Latin American economy worse. At the same time,the Latin American countries are also generally faced with high inflation,exchange rate volatility,deterioration of the employment situation and other risks,economic uncertainty further increased. Shrinking investment in the region has become a major reason for economic recession,the fragile investment confidence,high financing costs,sluggish commodity prices,deterioration of government finances and other factors will continue to inhibit the investment in the region,which also determines the Latin American economy in the short term will be difficult to return to the previous high-speed growth.