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亚太经济:内需支撑增长

文章摘要

亚太经济体2016年经济增速预计为5.4%,略低于2015年5.5%的增速。虽然区内多数发达经济体及新兴和发展中经济体的总体经济增长较上年有所好转,但区内最大经济体中国正在进行新一轮改革,从而整个亚太区域的经济增长有所放缓。区域内多数国家通货膨胀水平较上年出现回升;多数国家货币相对于上年出现贬值;经常账户的失衡水平稍有缓和。在区域内的主要经济体中,韩国、印度尼西亚和澳大利亚的经济均呈现复苏态势,私人部门需求回暖和政府积极的宏观经济政策是主因,外部需求仍受全球贸易低迷的影响未见好转。印度经济增长依旧强劲,主要动力来自私人部门消费,政府正积极开展结构性改革措施消除增长瓶颈。加拿大因火灾影响经济继续趋冷,但未来经济有望好转。展望2017年,亚太经济的增长前景仍受到外需的不确定性、内需的可持续性以及长期增长动力转化等因素的影响。

Abstract

The growth rate of Asia-Pacific Economy in 2016 is projected to be 5.4%- lower than 5.3% in 2015. Although the aggregated growth rate of major developed and developing economies in this region is higher this year than last year,China-the biggest economy- is experiencing transition and a lower growth rate. Thus,the growth rate of the whole region is declining. Compared with last year,most countries have higher inflation,lower currency value and moderate current account imbalance. With regarding to the major economies of this region,Korea,Indonesia and Australia are experiencing recovery owning to a higher private demand and accommodative macro policy,but there is no significant sign of external recovery due to weak global trade. India’s growth is still robust with major boost from domestic consumption and government is implementing reform to remove bottlenecks for growth. Canada is hit by fire but will turn out to be better next year. In 2017,the prospect of Asia Pacific Region is affected by the uncertainty of external demand,the sustainability of domestic demand and the potential of long-term growth.

作者简介
杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,研究领域:国际金融。