2015～2016年，西亚北非各国内部以及国家间的冲突仍在持续和扩大，不仅叙利亚等地的内战趋于长期化，伊朗和沙特之间的冲突加剧，土耳其、海湾国家内部的政治社会危机也出现了明显升级，可谓陷入全面动荡。在冲突加深的同时，美国还在延续谨慎的区域政策，拒绝深度干预，这直接导致了原有阵营体系的瓦解和区域国家间的联盟重组。整体看来，尽管国际能源价格下降、域外大国的战略调整、伊斯兰社会的思潮变化以及国际反恐战略的调整共同塑造了当前的区域格局，但从长期看来，区域各国的内部社会结构矛盾才是最根本的动因。目前看来，短期内西亚北非还将继续动荡重组，新的平衡点尚不可期。
From 2015 to 2016，interstate and intrastate conflicts in North Africa and West Asia not only continued to exist but in fact also increased. These included the ongoing civil wars in Syria and Libya and also the direct diplomatic confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s military coup. The area is now immersed in conflict.Meanwhile，the United States continued its cautious regional strategy，refusing to intervene too deeply so as not to cause the collapse of the traditional bloc system and a reshuffling of the regional powers. Despite the decline in the international prices of oil，the policy changes of the external powers，the changes in the mood in Muslim societies，and changes in international anti-terrorism strategies all contributed to the present situation，whereby internal conflicts within the states are the most important determinants of the outcomes. In the short term，it will be difficult to achieve a new balance in West Asia and North Africa and hence this region will remain turbulent.
