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2015年加拿大发展形势与中加关系展望

文章摘要

2015年以来,加拿大宏观经济增速显著放缓,国内通胀指数不断下跌,国民经济结构性问题日益突出。利率小幅上调,汇率持续走弱,美元外汇储备增加。经济不景气导致就业状况有所恶化,不同省区和部门失业情况差异显著。加拿大联邦大选揭晓,自由党获得执政权。民生问题恶化影响政局走向,小特鲁多新政府未来的财政刺激计划将会面临诸多挑战。亚洲移民逐渐融入加拿大社会,华人选票受到更多重视,参政议政热情日益高涨。新政府上台后,加拿大外交政策更趋向务实和温和,经济外交和对美外交仍然居于国家对外交往中的优先地位。亚太地区的经济繁荣、安全困境与大国博弈态势,为加拿大发挥中等强国外交提供了更大的斡旋空间,加拿大与韩国、印度、东盟国家等互动频繁。中加关系有望持续回暖,小特鲁多政府的对华政策调整,将会面临国内反对党和美国的强大压力,但是双方有望在中加自由贸易协定谈判、加拿大加入亚投行等经济议题领域实现突破进展。

Abstract

Since 2015,Canada’s macroeconomic growth slowed significantly but in the long-term economic growth is expected to rebound. Inflation index continued to fall,but the internal structural problems have become increasingly prominent,including a slight increase in the interest rate,an exchange rate weakening,and dollar reserves increase. The employment situation has deteriorated,and various provinces,industries and sectors have significant differences in unemployment. The federal liberal party has won the 2015 election with a majority and enjoys surport from the voters. The government’s budget deficit has gradually increased,and the new government has made great efforts to cut taxes to support the middle class. After the new government came to power,Canada’s foreign policy will be more pragmatic and moderate. It will pay more attention to the prosperity and security of the Asia Pacific region with more interaction with the Asia Pacific powers and the group of countries. Asia’s security dilemma and the situation of the great powers of the game,for Canada to play a middle power diplomacy to provide greater space. Sino-Canada relations are expected to continue to pick up,bilateral cooperation needs to be further developed. But the friendly potential of the Trudeau administration will face pressure from domestic oppsition parties and the United States.

作者简介
仲伟合:仲伟合,博士,教授,广东外语外贸大学校长,研究方向为加拿大文化。
程永林:程永林,博士,副教授,广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院、加拿大研究中心研究员,研究方向为加拿大经济与外交。