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2015年伊朗社会、经济与政治形势

文章摘要

2015年是伊朗政局平稳、社会和谐运行的一年,是伊朗外交破除困境、收获丰硕的一年,特别是7月14日伊核协定的达成,伊朗的投资环境有所好转,对伊朗内政、外交都产生了深远的影响。2015年也是伊朗经济形势整体趋于好转的一年,伊朗政府通过财政紧缩政策在抑制通货膨胀方面取得可喜的成就,但因为体制和机制等深层因素,伊朗生产和消费严重缺乏活力,自由市场外汇价格悄然上升,失业率重新上升。鲁哈尼政府加大对外开放力度,鼓励外国企业以投资、融资或技术转让方式参与伊朗的项目合作,通过吸纳外国资本和先进技术增加油气和非石油产品的出口及发展那些可长期提供就业机会的行业。2015年也是中伊关系平稳发展的一年,伊朗开始了解中国“一带一路”倡议,愿意以项目对接形式实现合作共赢。

Abstract

It is in 2015 when Iranian politics and society is under harmonious and stable operation,when Iran’s foreign situations have broken dilemma and got good harvest,especially in July 14th reached the Iranian nuclear agreement,Its investment environment has improved,which has a profound impact on the Iran domestic and foreign affairs. It is 2015 when the Iranian economic situation is getting better,Iranian government has made gratifying achievements in terms of inflation by tightening fiscal policy,but because of deep reasons,such as the system and mechanism,Iranian production and consumption are lack of vitality,the free market exchange price quietly rose,the unemployment rate rose again. The Rouhani administration increased opening efforts to encourage foreign enterprises to participate in the Iran cooperation projects with investment,financing or technology transfer,through absorbing foreign capital and advanced technology to increase oil and gas and non oil exports,to develop industry tat can provide long-term employment opportunities. The smooth development of Sino-Iranian relations have developed smoothly in 2015,Iran began to understand “the belt and Road Initiatives”,to achieve win-win cooperation in Project docking.

作者简介
冀开运:冀开运,博士,西南大学历史文化学院教授,西南大学伊朗研究中心主任。
陆瑾:陆瑾,博士,中国社会科学院西亚非洲所副研究员。