阿拉伯剧变既是中东政治、经济、社会等多重矛盾长期积累后的爆发,也是国际政治经济格局调整的大背景下,中东国家推行新自由主义发展模式所致根本缺陷的必然反映。剧变既体现出无组织、新媒体、青年化、多样性等偶然性特征,也兼具中东威权政治转型过程中长期性与艰巨性特点。从剧变的本质及中东政治转型的历史沿革考察,此次剧变应视为阿拉伯世界的一场民主革命。此外,剧变所衍生出的阿拉伯君主制国家统治的稳定性问题、“土耳其”模式是否适用于阿拉伯国家的政治转型问题以及由此美国的中东战略调整等问题,是其具有地缘政治意义与影响的外溢性效应。对于阿拉伯剧变所产生的乱局及其未来发展前景,我们必须综合考虑中东政治转型中的历史、宗教、文化与现实等多重因素,用大历史眼光审视国家与社会、军队与政治、民生与民主等关系问题,探究中东国家走向政治可持续发展道路的理性之路。
Arab upheavals is an outbreak because of long-term accumulations of political,economic,social and other multiple contradictions,and an inevitable reflections of essential shortcomings of the new liberalist model pursued by Middle Eastern countries under the backdrop of international political and economic structural adjustment. The upheaval is both a reflection of occasional characteristics of spontaneity in organization,new media,importance of youth and diversity,and long-term arduous characteristics of the transformation process of authoritarianism in Middle East countries. Considering the nature of upheaval and the history of the Middle East political transformation,the upheaval should be regarded as an Arab democratic revolution. In addition,it has geopolitical significance and impact in terms of the spillover effect due to number of problems derived from the upheaval,such as the stability of the Arab monarchic ruling,adaptability of “Turkey Model” to Arab political transformation and the adjustment of American Middle East strategy. As for the chaotic results from Arab upheavals and their future prospects,people must consider multiple factors of Arab political transformation in depth,which includes history,religious,culture and reality;and evaluate such relations as those between state and society,military and politics and people’s livelihood and democracy as well from the macro-historical perspective,in order to explore a rational road of sustainable development in the Middle East.