从发文数量、引用率、相对影响力、决策影响力四个维度,对中国知识生产产业1981~2013年的变化趋势进行分析,并与美国等科研强国及其他金砖国家进行对比。结果发现,过去30多年,中国发表论文数呈指数型增长,引用率也有显著提升,社会影响力逐步接近世界平均水平,决策影响力稳步提升。但与美国等科研强国相比,无论在数量、引用率还是影响力上,仍有很大差距。今后,中国需要在继续加大科研投入的同时,集中优势资源,加强科研队伍建设和经费管理,进一步健全智库运行体制,建立以创新和质量为标准的科研评价体系。最后,趋势分析表明中国知识生产产业的竞争力在未来是最有望出现快速提升的领域之一。
From views of paper publication number,citation rate,social influence and decision-making influence,this report analyzed the trends of knowledge creative industry between 1981 and 2013 and compared the research development with U.S. and “BRICS”. It was found that in the past 30 years,China’s paper quantity grew as an exponential function,the citation rate has significantly improved,social influence gradually closed to the world average level and decision-making influence improved steadily. However,compared with U.S.,in terms of quantity,citation rate or the influence,there is still a big gap. In the future,China needs to continue to increase research investment,while concentrate the superior resources,strengthen research team and fund management,further improve the think tanks operating system and establish the innovation-and-quality-based research evaluation system. Finally,the analysis of trend showed that the competitiveness of the industry is most likely to be one of the most rapid increasing areas in the future.
Keywords: | InfluenceKnowledge Creative IndustryPublication NumberCitation RateMaking-decision Influence |