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中东粮食进口安全问题

  • 作者:刘冬出版日期:2016年06月
  • 报告页数:15 页
  • 报告字数:12251 字所属丛书:
  • 所属图书:西亚非洲经济问题研究文选
  • 浏览人数:0    下载次数:17

文章摘要

中东是全球最为重要的粮食进口市场,该地区绝大多数国家所需粮食及其他基本食品严重依赖对外进口。而在中东国家中,存在严重粮食进口安全隐患的主要是那些基本食品进口支付能力较低的国家,特别是支付能力较低的非产油国。中东粮食进口安全问题的产生首先与该地区恶劣的农业生产条件有关。其次,催生中东粮食安全问题更为重要的原因是该地区非产油国工业制造业发展滞后,贸易账户存在巨额赤字,难以满足粮食进口用汇需求。由于中东粮食进口安全问题具有外生性的特点,未来国际粮价的走势将是影响中东粮食进口安全状况的首要因素。由于未来全球粮食价格及其他基本食品价格将会出现回落,中东粮食进口安全状况将会有所改善,粮价问题在该地区再次引发政治动荡的可能性将会大幅降低。

Abstract

The Middle East is the world's most important food import market, the vast majority of countries in the region need to rely heavily on foreign imports of food and other basic food. In the Middle East countries, there is a serious security risk of food imports are mainly those countries with low basic food import capacity, especially the non oil producing countries with a lower ability to pay. The problem of the safety of food import in the Middle East is the first to the region's poor agricultural production conditions. Second, a more important reason of the birth of food security in the Middle East is that the region's non oil producing countries in the development of industrial manufacturing lags behind, there is a huge trade deficit, it is difficult to meet the demand for food imports. Because of the Middle East import food safety problem with exogenous features, the trend of international food prices in the future will be primary factor affects the Middle East import food security situation. As the future of the global food prices and other basic food prices will fall, Middle East import food safety conditions will be improved, prices in the region once again raised political unrest possibility will be substantially reduced.
作者简介
刘冬:刘冬,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为中东经济、能源经济。