本文考察了奥巴马政府为推动2015年巴黎气候协议达成所采取的行动，进而分析了影响美国气候行动的主要因素，并预判未来美国气候政策的总体趋势。本文发现，奥巴马政府对“2015年新协议”的贡献深受国内气候共识、替代能源发展和国际气候谈判三大因素的影响。未来，奥巴马政府兑现其承诺所面临的最大变数来自国内政治。预计国会很难彻底逆转奥巴马的低碳转型发展政策，奥巴马将持续加强其气候遗产。
This paper examines the Obama Administration’s contributions to the 2015 Paris climate deal，analyzes the main factors in determining those contributions，and predicts the U.S. climate policy trend during Obama’s final two years. We find that Obama’s contributions to the 2015 global climate deal are driven by the domestic climate consensus，alternative energy development，and UN climate negotiations. The biggest uncertainty that Obama administration faces when fulfilling its promises，however，comes from the domestic political field. It is expected that the U.S. Congress will have great difficulty in reversing Obama’s policies of low carbon transition and Obama will continue to strengthen his climate legacy.
