拉美地区2013年的经济增长率预计为3.0%,与2012年持平。2014年预计将保持平稳回升。由于面临较大的通货膨胀压力,拉美部分国家开始实行紧缩性货币政策,但不少国家仍有进一步放松的空间。在财政政策方面,拉美整体较为健康,具有一定的财政刺激空间。由于对外部经济存在较大依赖性,拉美地区较易受到区外经济波动的影响。2014年,预计美国的复苏基础将会更加稳固,中国经济将会更加稳健,这都将为拉美地区创造有利的国际环境。在保持短期经济稳定的基础上,从中期来看,拉美需要推进结构性改革,以维持经济的可持续发展,并降低对外部经济的依赖。
Latin American economic growth rate is estimated to be 3. 0% in 2013,
the same as 2012. It is expected to remain steady in 2014. Because of greater inflation
pressures, some Latin American economies implemented tight monetary policy.
However, some economies still have a room for further easing. Latin America’s fiscal
position is relatively healthy as a whole, allowing for some space for fiscal stimulus. Latin
America’s economy greatly depends on external economic circumstances, which made it
particularly vulnerable to international economic fluctuations. Since the U. S. economic
recovery is expected to be more stable and China’s economy is expected to remain robust
in 2014, Latin America will face a favorable international environment. In addition to
maintaining economic stability in the short term, Latin America need to advance structural
reforms in the medium term, in order to maintain sustainable economic development and
reduce dependence on external economic influences.