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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

俄罗斯:应警惕滞胀风险

文章摘要

2012~2013年,俄罗斯实际GDP同比增长率呈现明显放缓的态势,俄罗斯经济发展部和主要国际组织均大幅下调了对俄罗斯2013~2014年的增长预测值。同时,尽管俄罗斯目前的通胀水平已从高于7%回落到6.5%左右,但仍超过俄央行目标区间的上限。在贸易顺差急剧下降、资本净流出快速攀升等因素的影响下,从2012年第4季度开始,俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率明显进入下行通道。俄罗斯目前的整体财政收支仍基本平衡,结构调整也略有成效。在加入WTO以后,俄罗斯还进一步加强了与欧盟、日本等国家和地区的经贸合作,与中国在能源、高科技等重点领域的合作更是具有广阔前景,但与美国的经贸关系因斯诺登事件受到较大影响。未来的主要经济风险,仍然集中在主要贸易伙伴能源需求减弱和国际油价下行等方面,增长前景不容乐观。

Abstract

The real growth rate of Russia’s gross domestic product decreased in 2012 -2013, and Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development and main international organizations reduced the its growth expectation greatly for the period 2013 -2014. Moreover, although the inflation rate decreased from 7% to 6. 5% , it still exceeds the target range set by the central bank. Furthermore, Russian ruble-dollar exchange rate has entered a descending channel since the fourth quarter of 2012. However, Russia’s fiscal revenues and expenditures still remain balanced in general, and its structural reforms become effective slightly. After joining the WTO, Russia further enhanced the trade and economic cooperation with Europe and Japan. The cooperation with China in energy, high technology and other key areas also has broad prospects. Nevertheless, Russia’s relationship with USA was influenced severely due to the Snowden event. Its growth outlook is not optimistic, and the major economic risks in the future still concentrate on the weakening energy demand of major trading partners and declining international prices of oil.
作者简介
高凌云:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向为国际贸易与投资。