2014年6月以来油价大幅下跌的主要原因是石油长期供给面的改善。根据20世纪70年代以来六轮油价下跌的历史，供给面改善将在长期内抑制油价上涨。我们预计2015～2016年油价将维持在50～65美元/桶，未来5～10年油价的新常态将维持在靠近边际生产成本的水平。地缘政治冲突可能触发油价反弹，但不会改变低油价的中长期走势。石油价格下降有利于提升中国和世界经济增长。货币政策不宜对油价变化带来的通货紧缩压力过度反应。油价下降为国内消化债务压力、调整财政政策和外汇储备管理政策提供了机遇。中国应积极参与多边和双边政治协商，帮助缓解产油国可能出现的地缘政治冲突。
Since June 2014 the improvement on the supply side has been the main driving factor of the plunge of oil price. Based on the history of oil price movement after 1970s，we find that the supply-side increases will restrain the oil price from rising in the long-run. We estimate that the average level of oil price will be around 50-65 USD/barrel from 2015 to 2016，and the new normal level of oil price will be close to the marginal producing cost. Geopolitical conflicts may trigger the oil price rebound，but won’t change the long-term trend of oil price. The oil price fall will benefit the global and China’s economic growth. Monetary policy should not overreact to the deflation incurred by oil price changes. The oil price decline provides opportunities for alleviating debt load，and reforming fiscal policies and foreign reserves management policies. China should take part in the multilateral and bilateral political negotiation more actively and help to ease the geopolitical conflicts in oil-producing countries.
| Keywords： | DemandSupplyExchange RateOil PriceGrowth |
