全球金融危机给国际贸易带来严重冲击：2009年全球贸易额大幅下滑，2012年以来年均贸易增长仅3%左右。这一现象可称为“全球贸易低速增长之谜”。本文的数量分析表明，结构性因素对贸易增速放缓的影响略大于需求因素。其中，重要的结构性因素包括全球贸易中商品构成的变动、中国融入世界经济的红利消失、全球价值链分工模式的变动和贸易保护抬头等。
The 2008 global financial crisis has a serious shock on global trade：there is great trade collapse in 2009，and the growth rates of global trade are only about 3% in recent three years. Besides，the reason of this trade shock is complex. Therefore，we can call this phenomenon “the myth of global trade slowdown”. Quantitative analysis reveals that，the structural factors make a little more contributions to global trade slowdown than demand factor. A further study reveals that structural factors include the change of global commodity composition，the weak bonus of China’s integration into world economy，global value chains，and trade protection. All these structural factors affect the growth rate of trade through income elasticity of trade. This paper forecasts that，the grow rate of global trade will be about 4% in the next few years，still lower than the growth rate before global financial crisis. The global trade slowdown is an important opportunity for China’s transformation and upgrading of trade structure.
