2015年，发达经济体的缓慢增长和包括中国在内的新兴经济体的增速大幅放缓，导致全球大宗商品价格指数全面下跌，其中铁矿石、农业原材料、贵金属和原油的价格跌势尤为显著。受产能过剩和经济结构调整的负面影响，2014年中国的大宗商品绝对进口规模小幅下降，但占全球大宗商品进口的份额继续上升。2016年，世界经济增长速度的加快和中国对经济结构调整适应能力的增强，将有利于大宗商品的需求增长，但美联储升息和美元的强势地位对大宗商品价格构成压力。全球大宗商品的价格在2015年触及底部，2016年将有小幅反弹。预计2015年原油平均价格将围绕50美元/桶波动，2016年将可能反弹至55美元/桶左右。
The sluggish recovery in advanced economies and substantial slow down in emerging economies including China has led to comprehensive decline in price indexes of commodities in 2015，particularly those of iron ore，agricultural raw materials，precious metals and crude petroleum. Due to the negative effect of overcapacity and economic structure adjustment，the absolute value of China’s imported commodities in fell slightly in 2014，but its share in global imported commodities increased steadily. In 2016，the acceleration in world economic recovery and China’s enhanced adaptability to economic restructure will stimulate the steady growth in demand on commodities，and while Fed’s raising interest rate and the strong US dollar will constitute pressure on prices of commodities. The price index of global commodities will reach trough in 2015，and will rebound slightly in 2016. It is expected that the average price of crude petroleum will fluctuate at around USD50/barrel in 2015，and which will climb at around USD55/barrel in 2016.
| Keywords： | DemandSupplyPriceBulk Commodity Market |
