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热词推荐: 基础设施能源

全球能源政治(2014~2015年)

文章摘要

2014年下半年以来的油价暴跌,强化了能源消费大国在能源政治博弈中的地位,但给油气出口大国造成了巨大的经济损失。出口大国对此做出了不同反应:沙特坚持不限产,委内瑞拉则采取减产保价措施,俄罗斯强化了与欧美的对抗,伊朗则转向与欧美合作。乌克兰依然是欧洲能源政治的热点,并可能继续下去。亚洲能源政治的热点在西亚,“伊斯兰国”问题、也门内乱短期内看不到好转迹象。美国与委内瑞拉的制裁与反制裁是西半球能源政治的主旋律,委内瑞拉经济形势进一步恶化。虽然都发生了内战,南苏丹实现了油气产量的增长而利比亚则大幅减产。全球核电继续复苏的迹象明显。伊朗核问题取得突破性进展,关键是下一步的落实。

Abstract

Since the second half of 2014,the price of oil and gas began to slump. This nose- dive benefited the main importing countries as part of the game of energy politics. However,it resulted in huge losses to the main exporting countries. There were differing responses from the exporting countries. For instance,Saudi Arabia insisted that it would not reduce production,whereas Venezuela took the opposite position. Russia furthered its confrontation with the EU and the United States,whereas Iran sought cooperation. During the past year,Ukraine still remained at the hub of the game of energy politics in Europe and this will probably be the case for the foreseeable future. In addition,some hot spots emerged in Western Asia. The ISIS problem and Yemen’s civil war will continue. Sanctions and non-sanctions between the United States and Venezuela are the main case of energy politics in the Western hemisphere. The economic situation in Venezuela became worse. Oil production increased in South Sudan,but it decreased dramatically in Libya,though both countries were engaged in civil war. The nuclear power industry experienced a further recovery. There was a breakthrough with respect to the Iran nuclearcrisis,with the key issue in the future being implementation of the agreement.

作者简介
薛力:薛力,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为国际战略与中国外交、能源政治。近期比较关注“一带一路”与南海问题。