中东剧变经过数年发酵，动荡已成为中东常态。一是民主转型未能拯救中东，治理模式探索任重道远；二是地区博弈呈现“地缘争夺+教派冲突”的“冷战”态势；三是“伊斯兰国”异军突起，中东地区体系根基动摇；四是美国既定战略部署被打乱，中东战略进退失据。阿拉伯世界已经进入新一轮动荡期。在可见未来，这种状况短期难以改观。
After several years’ ferment of the upheavals in the Middle East，turbulence has become the “new normal” of the region. First，the democratic transition has failed to save the Middle East；there is a long way to go to explore the governance model. Second，the regional game shows the “New Cold War” features of geopolitical rivalry plus sectarian conflict. Third，themeteoric rise of the so-called “Islamic State” has shaken the foundation of the Middle Eastern system. Forth，the established strategic plan of the United States has been disrupted，leaving the Middle East in a strategic dilemma. The Arab world has entered a new round of turbulence，and in the foreseeable future the situation is unlikely to improve.
