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正视日本财政重建:背道而驰的现实与岌岌可危的未来

文章摘要

2014年11月,日本首相安倍晋三宣布推迟再次提高消费税税率的时间,解散众议院,提前举行大选。此时做出解散众院、进行大选这一政治判断,其图谋长期执政的政治意图非常明显。但在没有足够信息的情况下,宣布推迟已由国会决定的再次提高消费税税率的时间,不仅决策轻率,而且对由国民代表组成的立法机关已经决定的事项缺乏应有的尊重。这种政治上的“大众迎合主义”倾向,拖延了问题的解决,不利于日本的财政重建。通过分析大选后日本政治的动向,指出为推进日本财政健全化,必须真心实意地按步骤采取多重手段,即在健全法制的同时进行政府改革、利用独立的预测机关、构建数年度的财政预算,并为此做出不懈的努力。

Abstract

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared in November 2014 that he decided to delay the second round sales tax hike,dissolve the lower house and hold general election,which showed the political intention of long-term governance obviously. However,based on inadequate information,the decision of postponing the second round sales tax hike,which had been decided by Congress before,is not only hasty,but has showed no respect to the legislature as well. The political tendency of populism like this postpones the solution of the problem and has no benefit for Japan’s fiscal reconstruction. Through analyzing Japan’s political movement after general election,this paper points out that in order to improve Japan’s fiscal soundness,multiple measures have to be adopted sincerely,which are legal system improvement and government reform at the same time,the application of independent forecasting institution,and financial budget for several years.

作者简介
〔日〕龟井善太郎:龟井善太郎,东京财团研究员,原众议院议员,庆应义塾大学经济学部毕业,曾供职日本兴业银行(现瑞穗银行)、波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group),主要研究领域:日本宏观经济、日本财政。