本文从评析奥巴马执政期间历年的国情咨文及其实际行动出发，进而考察国会气候立法进程和奥巴马政府气候政策的三大影响因素，预测2014年美国气候政策的总体趋势。本文认为，奥巴马的战略选择和政策立场深受能源安全、经济复苏和温室气体减排三大因素的驱动，奥巴马政府所取得的成绩并不能掩盖美国气候决策中的制度性障碍，2014年美国气候政策仍将保守前行。
Based on the State of the Union Address，the paper analyzes the State of the Union Addresses and actual climate actions during the Obama administration，then explores the underlying causes of the congress’ legislation process and Obama administration’s climate policy choices，and ultimately predicts Obama’s climate policy in 2014. We find that Obama’s strategic choices and policy positions are driven by energy security，economic recovery and greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The Obama administration’s achievements，however，cannot conceal institutional barriers during the climate decision-making in U.S.. U.S. climate policy will remain conservative in 2014.
