从中期来看，新兴经济体面临的外部冲击主要来自三个方面：美联储非传统宽松货币政策的退出及其引致的国际资本流动、发达经济体的需求回暖以及大宗商品价格的进一步走弱。我们分析了G20当中11个主要新兴经济体的对外经济结构、经济的内在稳定性，并根据外部冲击可能造成的正面、中性和负面结果，对各国受冲击的情况进行了分类。然后，结合了失业率、通货膨胀率和债务负担率等指标，分析了各国的财政和货币政策空间。最后，考虑外部冲击对各国的不对称影响，以及各国的国内政策空间。基于此，我们提出了蝙蝠三国的概念（BAT，巴西、阿根廷、土耳其），上述三国在未来中期可能面临较大风险，并缺乏政策应对的空间。
From the perspective of middle term，three shocks challenge the internal policies of Emerging Economies. Firstly，the Fed is expected to exert QE tapering or even exit；secondly，the advanced economies as a whole is undergoing a moderate recovery；and thirdly，the commodities price is and will continue to keep weak. Based on Emerging Elevens’ features upon external and internal economic structure，we analyze how these economies will suffer or enjoy the above three shocks. With a survey of the major index like unemployment ratio，inflation and debt-GDP ratio，we analyze the room of the economies’ policies respectively. At last，we raise a new concept of BAT countries （Brazil，Argentina，Turkey），and emphasize the risks for BAT in middle term.
