2014年世界经济增速下滑和美联储退出量化宽松的预期导致大宗商品的需求增长放缓，大宗商品价格指数下跌。铁矿石、农业原材料、贵金属和原油的价格跌势明显。2015年世界经济增长率的回升，虽会促进全球大宗商品需求的增长，但大宗商品价格指数不会随着需求的回升而上涨。美联储于2014年10月底终止债券资产购买计划、2015年中可能提高联邦基金利率和停止到期债券本金的再投资，将不仅抑制全球的流动性供给，而且将引发美元资产的收益率上升和美元升值，进而导致国际大宗商品价格下跌。从长期视角看，原油价格下调的压力相对较大，黄金价格下跌的压力居中，非原油大宗商品价格指数下降的压力相对较小。原油需求在2015年将会继续维持弱势，全年日均原油价格将会跌至100美元/桶以下，很可能围绕着95美元/桶的水平上下波动。
The decline in the global economic growth rate and the expectation on Fed’s exit of quantitative easing（QE） monetary policy，has caused the growth rate of commodity demand moderate and commodity price index decrease，particularly prices of iron ore，agricultural raw materials，precious metals and crude petroleum fell significantly in 2014. Although the rebound in global economy in 2015 will stimulate commodity demand increase，it can’t lead to rise in commodity price index. It is expected that Fed’s end QE at the end of October 2014，and possibly raise the target range for the federal funds rate and stop reinvesting of principal payments from maturing securities in the middle of 2015，will not only constrain global liquidity supply，but also induce the yield of the US dollar assets rise and the US dollar appreciate，and hence commodity price index will decline. In the perspective of long-run，the declining pressure in the price of crude petroleum is relatively large，and that of gold and non-oil commodity is relatively moderate and small respectively. The crude petroleum market will keep weak in 2015，and whose average daily price will fall to below MYM100/barrel，possibly fluctuating at around MYM95 a barrel.
| Keywords： | Commodity MarketDemandSupplyPrice |
