全球经济复苏之路依然漫长，美国等发达经济体的贸易开始适度增长。尽管2014年全球贸易开局黯淡，上半年全球货物贸易量还是呈温和增长之势。1～6月，全球货物贸易量同比增长2.9%，明显低于WTO预测的4.7%。我们判断，经济形势好转以及从年中开始主要国家出现的贸易反弹，预示着下半年全球贸易将好于上半年。由于全球贸易增长格局发生明显变化，我们预测2014年全球货物贸易增长率将在3.5%左右。中期内，全球贸易增速很可能低于或者等于经济增速，2015年全球贸易增长率估计会在3.5%～4%。此外，多边贸易协定也有新进展，贸易便利化成为多边贸易规则的一个新成果。但是近期印度等国对粮食安全的强硬立场，导致贸易便利化协议未能通过，迫使其向诸边形式发展。在区域贸易发展中，增加值贸易对APEC贸易投资的发展具有重要意义，全球价值链能促进亚太地区经济一体化和区域贸易发展。
The trade of developed economies like U.S. staged a modest growth，but there is still a long way to go for the global economy to get recovered. The global trade in the first half of 2014 did not look promising. The increase of global merchandise trade in the first half is moderate at 2.9%，lower than 4.7% predicted by WTO. The improvement of economic conditions and increase of trade since the mid of 2014 suggest that the global trade in the second half year of 2014 could be better than the first half. Due to the change of global trade growth pattern，we forecast that the growth of global merchandise trade could be around 3.5%. In the medium term，the increase of global trade could be lower or equal to the economic growth. We suggest that the growth of global trade in 2015 could be around 3.5-4%. In addition，multilateral trade agreements also made new progress，and trade facilitation became a new rule of multilateral trade. However，the intransigent attitude of India and other countries towards food security hampered the passage of the agreement on trade facilitation，and forced it to develop in the form of plurilateral agreement. In terms of regional trade development，trade in value-added is significant for the trade and investment in APEC，and global value chains also promote the economic integration in Asia-Pacific region and its trade development.
