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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

拉美经济:低位回升,风险依旧

文章摘要

2014年拉美地区的经济增长率预计为2.2%,较2013年继续放缓,预计2015年将回升至2.6%。虽然经济持续疲弱,但通货膨胀压力持续不退,拉美大部分国家仍保持着紧缩性货币政策。尽管预计2015年拉美国家经济将会有所反弹,但依然存在诸多不确定性因素。美国量化宽松政策退出将会引发拉美国家新一轮的资本外流,从而对实体经济和金融市场带来负面冲击。中国与拉美国家的经贸关系不断增强,经济相互影响日益加深,中国经济减速也将通过贸易、投资渠道对拉美国家产生影响。

Abstract

The economic growth rate of Latin America and the Caribbean regionis is expected to be 2.2% in 2014,continued to slow compared to 2013,and is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2015. While economic weakness continues,most Latin American countries have still maintained a tight monetary policy since persistent inflationary pressures. Although Latin America’s economy is expected to rebound in 2015,there are still many uncertainties. The withdrawal of the U.S. quantitative easing would trigger a new round of international capital outflows from the Latin American countries,and thus has a negative impact on the real economy and the financial markets. Along with the close economic relations between China and the Latin American countries,China’s economic slowdown will also have an impact on the Latin American countries through trade and investment channels.

作者简介
熊爱宗:熊爱宗,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所全球治理研究室助理研究员,研究领域为国际金融、新兴市场。