2014年拉美地区的经济增长率预计为2.2%,较2013年继续放缓,预计2015年将回升至2.6%。虽然经济持续疲弱,但通货膨胀压力持续不退,拉美大部分国家仍保持着紧缩性货币政策。尽管预计2015年拉美国家经济将会有所反弹,但依然存在诸多不确定性因素。美国量化宽松政策退出将会引发拉美国家新一轮的资本外流,从而对实体经济和金融市场带来负面冲击。中国与拉美国家的经贸关系不断增强,经济相互影响日益加深,中国经济减速也将通过贸易、投资渠道对拉美国家产生影响。
The economic growth rate of Latin America and the Caribbean regionis is expected to be 2.2% in 2014,continued to slow compared to 2013,and is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2015. While economic weakness continues,most Latin American countries have still maintained a tight monetary policy since persistent inflationary pressures. Although Latin America’s economy is expected to rebound in 2015,there are still many uncertainties. The withdrawal of the U.S. quantitative easing would trigger a new round of international capital outflows from the Latin American countries,and thus has a negative impact on the real economy and the financial markets. Along with the close economic relations between China and the Latin American countries,China’s economic slowdown will also have an impact on the Latin American countries through trade and investment channels.