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亚太经济:稳中略降,增长步入“新常态”

文章摘要

亚太经济体2014年增长稳中略降,预计经济增速为5.4%,比2013年低0.1个百分点,区内新兴市场国家和发达国家的经济增长均有所放缓。2014年,亚太国家的通货膨胀水平较上年出现下降;货币走势相对前两年较为平稳,没有发生大规模贬值潮;经常账户水平变化不大,并未出现显著失衡。尽管亚太地区的复苏态势仍领先全球,但其增长速度正在趋缓,这成为未来亚太地区增长的“新常态”。全球最活跃的亚太新兴市场预计难以回到危机前的高增长,需要各国积极制定政策予以应对。

Abstract

In 2014,the economic performance of Asia-Pacific region declined slightly. The growth rate was expected to be around 5.4%,and was 0.1 percent lower than 2013. The growth rates slowed down for both developing and developed economies within this region. In 2014,the inflation pressure relieved a little;currency trend remained stable generally,and there was no large wave of depreciation;current account did not change much,and there was no significant imbalance within this region. Although the recovery of Asia-Pacific region was still ahead of the world,it was losing its momentum for a stronger recovery. This was forming a New Normal in this region. Furthermore,Asia-Pacific emerging markets,which were the most active economies in the world,was in hard time to pursue higher growth. Innovative policies were called for future adjustment.

作者简介
杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,研究领域为国际金融。