2014年日本经济增长的显著特征是波动较大。上半年骤起骤落，下半年复苏缓慢、反弹乏力。从国内来看，这主要是提升消费税率造成的冲击和日本政府为应对冲击而采取的刺激政策所致。从外部看，日元贬值的效果转向负面，对主要贸易伙伴出口放缓是日本经济复苏比预期更加疲软的重要原因。日本政府虽然修订了“日本复兴战略”，但要真正落实并产生效果还为时尚早，结构性改革不足将弱化刺激政策的效果。消费税率提升的冲击超出了日本政府的预期，安倍晋三宣布推迟原定的2015年再度提升消费税税率的计划，民众对“安倍经济学”特别是结构性改革的信心受到影响。预计2014年日本实际GDP增长约为0.3%，2015年预计增长0.8%左右”。
The Japanese economy fluctuated in 2014. In the first half of the year，Japan’s economic growth experienced a sudden rise and a sudden drop. In the second half of the year，Japan’s economic recovery was slow and the rebound was weak. From a domestic perspective，this was mainly due to the impact caused by rising consumption tax rate and Japanese government’s stimulating countermeasures. From the external environment，the effect of the depreciation of the yen turned negative. Slowing exports to major trading partners made Japan’s economic recovery more sluggish than expected. Although the Japanese government revised the “Japan Revitalization Strategy，” there was a long way to go to let the strategy into reality. Inadequate structural reforms would weaken the effect of the stimulus. Shinzo Abe had announced to postpone the planned consumption tax increase. The public confidence to“Abenomics”and the structural reform measureswas weaker. Japan’s real GDP is expected to grow about 0.3% in 2014 is expected to grow about 0.8percent in 2015.
