2011~2012年，欧元区危机表现出间歇性特征，成为国际金融市场的重要风险源。与此同时，主要国家货币当局纷纷采取的传统和非传统宽松货币政策，造成全球流动性再度泛滥。在国际资本流向方面，国际投资者的避险情绪不断攀升，国际资本大量投向传统的安全港资产。发达经济体银行体系去杠杆化进程持续，但对新兴经济体持有的债权开始增加。国债市场因风险偏好表现出分化趋势，在国际负债证券币种结构中，除了美元等主要货币外，新兴市场国家的货币债券发行增加。基本面和货币因素共同支撑股市繁荣。在全球外汇市场中，美元货币安全港效应表现为先升后降，在年度中后期由于欧元区分裂危险消除，以及QE3的推出，美元重新落入中长期的贬值通道。2013年世界经济低迷增长、欧元区危机进展和财政调整、全球流动性变化、银行业整合等因素将主导国际金融市场动向，金融环境将十分脆弱，市场变化将持续动荡。
The Euro crisis has showed an on-off pattern during 2011-2012 and become the major risk for international financial market. Meanwhile, conventional and unconventional monetary policies adopted by major monetary authorities provided low interest rate for growth, but released new liquidity to global financial market. Investors' risk appetite has shifted to aversion and searched for safe haven. Deleverage in banking sector continued but claims for developing economies picked up. The government debt market has been divergent, reflecting risk preference. In international debt market, apart from the US dollar and other currencies, currencies in emerging economies have gained more grounds in debt denomination than before. Some favorable fundamentals and easy monetary condition have supported stock market. In global foreign exchange market, the US dollar has performed as safe asset, but turned back into the long-term trend of devaluation because the danger of Euro zone split has eliminated in the late 2012. In 2013, global financial market will be impacted by the key factors, such as slow growth of the world economy, evolvement of Euro crisis and fiscal adjustment, change of global liquidity, and consolidation of the banking industry. The market will continue to be fragile and volatile.
