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俄罗斯:加快融入全球,增长前景看好

文章摘要

俄罗斯经济在经历了2011年全年和2012年第一季度的中高速增长后,在全球贸易和生产减速的背景下,开始逐渐减速。国际石油价格维持高位,使得俄罗斯近两年的财政状况远远好于预期,联邦政府也拥有充足的储备基金来应对欧债危机等带来的不利影响,但应对人口老龄化、兑现选举承诺等很可能会使未来财政形势恶化。同时,俄罗斯货币政策体系正在向通货膨胀目标制过渡,卢布汇率逐步走向自由浮动制,尽管国内通货膨胀情况有较大好转,但卢布汇率的波动幅度也在加大。加入世界贸易组织、组建欧亚经济联盟等可能会对俄罗斯解决贸易结构单一和效率低下等问题产生强大的外部推动力,但真正决定其未来增长的是政治上能否稳定、经济政策上能否保持连续性。

Abstract

After the high growth in 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, Russia's economy began to decelerate due to the deceleration of the global trade and production. Russia's fiscal position is better than expected because of the high international oil prices. The federal government has adequate reserve funds to react to the adverse impact of the European debt crisis. However, government finance would deteriorate because of population aging and fulfilling election promises in the future. Meanwhile, Russia's monetary policy system is in transition to inflation targeting, and ruble exchange rate gradually is moving toward a free floating system. The fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate has increased despite the improvement in domestic inflation. The stronger eternal impetus from joining WTO and building Eurasian Economic Union might help Russia to solve the problems of single trade structure and inefficiency. However, the determinants of economy growth mainly depend on the stability in politics and continuity in economic policies.
作者简介
刘秀莲:
高凌云:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究方向为国际贸易与投资。