本文运用决策树分析方法，从全球价值链分工的角度出发，基于2012年沿海地区509家出口企业的调研数据，研究了中国外向型企业在要素成本上扬和外需疲软的双重压力下如何持续发展的问题。研究结果表明，转型升级是外向型企业更具持续性的长期路径选择；而构建国内价值链，建设自主创新、高端制造和市场拓展等关键能力，积累资金、人力资本等关键资源对转型升级进程有明显的促进作用。特别是国内市场的开拓，将成为企业转型升级、重塑在全球价值链上新定位的现实出路。
From the perspective of global value chains specialization，this paper utilizes decision tree method to research on the problem that how the export-oriented enterprises in China keep sustainable development under the pressure of increased factor costs and weakened foreign demand，based on the survey data collected from 509 export enterprises located in the coastal areas in 2012. The results show that transformation and upgrading is a more sustainable alternative in the long term for export-oriented enterprises；and establishing national value chains，developing critical abilities such as innovation，advanced manufacturing，and marketing，and accumulating critical resources such as fund and human capital will apparently improve the process of transformation and upgrading. Especially the expansion of domestic market will be a practical choice for those enterprises to upgrade and relocate themselves in global value chains.
| Keywords： | Transformation and UpgradingGlobal Value ChainsExport-oriented EnterprisesFactor EndowmentDomestic Market |
