文章从国内外经济形势分析入手，阐述了2011年世界经济和国内宏观经济的基本特征，对2012年世界经济和国内宏观经济的基本走势进行了预测。在此基础上，文章较详细地分析了2011年广东外经贸形势的特征，对2012年的外贸走势进行了预测。我们认为：2011年广东商品出口贸易的增幅为18%左右，2012年商品出口贸易的增幅为10%左右；上半年回落程度大，增幅不到10%，个别月份可能出现负增长；下半年的增幅会大于上半年，增幅总体超过10%。
Start with the situational analysis of domestic and international economic situation of 2011,the thesis expatiate the basic characteristics as well as the basic tendency of the world and international macroscopic economic.On this basis,the thesis analyses detailed the characteristics of Guangdong foreign economy and trade of 2011.The thesis also forecasts the tendency of Guangdong foreign trade of 2012.We suppose that the growing rate of Guangdong exportation of 2011 is about 18%,while that of 2012 will be 10%;the growth rate will drop largely in the first half of the year,which will be no more than 10%;some month may register negative growth;the growth rate in the second half of the year will be larger than that the first half,which will be more than 10%.
