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2011~2012年韩国社会经济发展形势评价与预测

文章摘要

2011年对于韩国来说又是不平凡的一年。“安哲秀现象”、女性政治家参政风潮、韩美自由贸易协定的批准、中小学生无偿供餐、税制修改、中韩渔业纠纷等问题成为备受关注的焦点,也给韩国政府和民众带来了严峻的挑战。特别是“安哲秀现象”和韩国女性的政治参与不仅体现了韩国朝野政治势力的斗争,也关乎韩国政治的走向。2011年韩国经济增速明显放缓,在物价走高的同时,民间消费和设备投资减少、政府企业和民间债台高筑。在世界经济进一步陷入困境的严峻形势下,中韩两国的经济发展在2011年仍然取得了令世人瞩目的成就。2012年是李明博政府执政的最后一年,也是韩国政治与外交面临严峻考验的一年。安哲秀以及支持他的“第三方势力”将成为大选的又一有力竞争势力,同样女性政治家朴槿惠能否成为韩国下一届总统也将会继续会聚世人的关心。进入2012年,韩国经济发展的障碍因素依然将会延续,韩国在外交安全方面将面对外部环境的严峻挑战。特别值得关注的是,2012年是中韩建交20周年。虽然中韩关系在20年的友好发展中,还有一些令人不愉快的因素,但今后中韩两国仍将保持长久的友好合作关系。

Abstract

The year of 2011 is a marvelous one for South Korea. There are some focus issues such as the phenomenon of Ahn Chul-su, female's participation in politics, permission of FTA between U.S.-South Korea, free meal for school children, institutional reform in universities, movement for half tuition fee, tax reform, North Korean defectors, fishery dispute between China and South Korea, crimes by U.S.forces in South Korea and environmental problems, which are serious challenges for South Korean government and the people as well. The phenomenon of Ahn Chul-show and female's participation in politics particularly not only reflected the political struggle in the court and the commonalty, but also concerned the political trend of South Korea. The economic growth of South Korea has slowed this year obviously. The prices went up while private consumption and equipment investment were decreasing, government enterprises are heavily in debt. Economy of PRC and South Korea in 2011 achieved remarkable development in spite of facing the serious situation of the world economy. The year of 2012 is the last one for President Lee's government. The politics and diplomacy of South Korea is faced with serious challenges. Ahn Chul-show and his supporters will become a new competitive force in the latter. However, the biggest weakness of him is that he is lack of experience in ruling state and dealing with politics. Similarly, whether Park Geunhye can become the next president is still attracting people's concern. In the year of 2012, the barrier in economic development of South Korea will be continued. South Korea will be faced with serious external environment challenges in fields of diplomacy security. It's worth paying attention that the year of 2012 is the 20 anniversary of diplomatic relation between China and South Korea. For 20 years, although there are some unpleasant factors indeed, the two countries will keep their friendly cooperation relations for long.
作者简介
本书课题组:支庭荣教授、罗昕教授统稿,罗昕教授、研究生杨仰文、研究生李芷娴、研究生周静思执笔。