制造业“复兴”是目前美国政界、商界和学界都热衷于讨论的问题。参照20世纪80年代的制造业“复兴”可以发现,尽管当前这次制造业“复兴”与80年代那次有着相似的背景,但实际上有不同的表现和走向。从产出、贸易、就业和劳动生产率等主要指标来看,如果把周期性因素的影响排除在外,美国制造业在进入21世纪以后无论是在国内还是在国际上的地位都是相对稳定的,既没有出现严重恶化,也没有显著改善。与其他传统的发达经济体中的制造业大国相比较,美国制造业的国际竞争力在许多领域都具有相对优势。目前美国制造业最明显的“复兴”迹象,就是近两年来制造业产出和就业的增长明显优于其他产业。然而,这是周期性复苏还是结构性改善,目前还难下定论。即使把政府政策因素考虑在内,当前美国制造业“复苏”的前景依然有许多不确定性。
Manufacturing Revival is currently a hot topic among not only politicians and businessmen, but also academics. Comparing with the manufacturing revival of the 1980s, current event has its own defining feature. Cyclical factors excluded, the U.S. manufacturing industry maintains a quite stable status both domestically and internationally in terms of major indicators such as output, international trade, employment and labor productivity. There are no significant improvements or deteriorations. The U.S. manufacturing industry enjoys an advantageous position over other major advanced economies. The most visible sign of "revival" of U.S. manufacturing is that the growth of output and employment of the industry is better than other industries. However, no one know for sure of the reason for the growth performance, cyclical recovery or structural improvement. Even taking the government support into consideration, there are still many uncertainties about the prospect of current manufacturing revival.