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东巴尔干三国发展报告(2010)

文章摘要

本报告期内,东巴尔干的罗马尼亚、摩尔多瓦政局不稳。罗马尼亚政府面临议会再次不信任投票的压力;执政联盟日益引发公众不满。摩尔多瓦全民公决失败,各政党面临议会选举前的激烈较量。保加利亚政局基本稳定,但执政党面临紧缩财政与高失业率压力。三国均在走出经济衰退的道路上缓慢行进,并继续调整经济政策,但在刺激经济的扩张性政策与削减财政赤字问题上左右为难。受经济危机影响,保加利亚加入欧洲汇率机制(ERMⅡ)的时间延后。三国与中国保持良好交往,双边经贸关系稳定。

Abstract

Political uncertainties will continue in Romania and Moldova during 2010. The Romanian government comprising the Democratic Liberal Party (DLP) and the Hungarian Union of Democrats in Romania (HUDR) is facing pressures both from a second non-confidence vote in the parliament and from the rising public discontents. In Moldova a referendum failed in September 2010,and a fierce contest between the major political parties is unfolding for the forthcoming parliamentary election due to be held in November. In addition,the sluggish economy and a fragile government caused social unrests in Moldova in 2010. The political situations of Bulgaria will remain essentially unchanged,but the ruling party is facing double pressures of reduced budget and high unemployment rate. In addition to the assistance provided by the EU and IMF to Romania and Moldova,the latter has also accepted assistance from the USA. All the three countries have been adjusting their policies to cope with the crisis,who,on the other hand,have been trapped in a dilemma between an expansive policy to stimulate the economy and one depending on budget cutting. Affected by the crisis,Bulgaria had to delay joining ERM II. At last,all the three countries maintain a good relationship with China.

作者简介
贾瑞霞:法学博士,中国社会科学院欧洲研究所科技政策研究室副研究员,研究领域为中东欧转型经济、中东欧科技创新等。