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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

油价巨幅波动与国家间关系变化

文章摘要

过去一年多,国际油价经历了巨幅波动,同时,金融危机的影响波及全球。这两种因素对大国关系产生了什么影响?本文抽取代表性的产油国与能源进口国,分析了六对国家间关系在过去一年多里所发生的变化。得出的基本结论是:对主要的能源出口国来说,金融危机加上油价暴跌所带来的后果不亚于一场经济危机,但没有导致产油国大幅度调整对能源消费国的外交政策;进口国的地位没有大幅度提升,出口国的地位也没有被明显削弱;油价波动对经济的影响是一时性的,全球金融危机对世界经济的影响没有原先估计的那么严重;全球经济已经大致走出了低谷;新兴大国获得了一些喝彩与掌声,但并没有实质性提高地位;中国在全球经济中的相对地位有所上升,是油价下跌的受益者与应对金融危机的赢家。

Abstract

In the past year,the international oil prices have undergone huge fluctuations,while the financial crisis affected the whole world. What impacts do these two factors have on the relationships between major powers?After analyzing six pairs of relationships between major oil exporting countries and importing countries,the author concludes:1)for major exporting countries,the financial crisis as well as the sharp drop of oil price are no less than an economic crisis,but still not enough for them to apparently adjust their foreign policies toward the energy consumption countries;2)the international status of importing countries has not been significantly enhanced,nor has the status of exporting countries obviously been weakened;3)the economic impacts of oil prices fluctuations are temporary in nature,and the impacts of global financial crisis on world economy is not as serious as people originally estimated;4)world economy has climbed up from the bottom of the V curve;5)emerging powers like BRICs gained some cheers and applause,but there’s no substantial improvement in their position;6)China has improved its global economic position,and is the beneficiary of the falling oil prices and the winner of the financial crisis.

作者简介
薛力:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,博士生导师,主要研究领域为国际战略与中国外交。