在目前美国“重返亚太”战略背景下,迅速扩张的TPP就如同一个杠杆,一旦未来找到支点,就会改变甚至颠覆全球特别是亚太经贸规则,导致世界经济格局大洗牌,届时中美日关系将发生重大变数,对中国经济构成现实威胁,并产生长远影响。对此,中国必须及早应对。既立足当前,依赖中国发展区域经贸合作的优势,加快推进区域经贸合作进程,稀释TPP“排他性效应”;又着眼未来,挖掘拥有13亿人口的世界最大市场潜力,转变外向型经济增长模式,适时加入TPP谈判,化解“去中国化”风险,赢得战略主动。
In the current U.S. “return to Asia” strategy background,the rapid expansion of the TPP is like a lever,once finds the fulcrum,it will trigger disruptive changes in the world,particularly Asia-Pacific economic and trade rules,leading to the world economic structure reshuffle. Then China-US-Japanese relations will be changed and constitute a real threat to the Chinese economy,have the long-term impact. In this regard,China must deal with this situation as soon as possible. Firstly,take advantage of regional economic cooperation and trade and accelerate the process of regional economic cooperation,dilution TPP “exclusionary effect”;Secondly,focus on the future and excavate the world’s largest market potential in 1.3 billion people market,change the export-oriented economic growth mode,join TPP negotiations at proper time to resolve the “off China” risk,and win strategic initiatives.