本文运用国际政治经济学分析方法，对影响日本启动FTA进程的政治、经济双重因素进行分析，并在此基础上对日本参与中日韩FTA谈判和TPP谈判的可能性作出判断。从传统收益上看，日本依然希望通过中日韩FTA的签署，从中国和韩国的经济高速发展中获取经济利益；但从非传统收益上看，对主导权、国家安全、利益集团等方面的考量，使日本不得不重视TPP的签署。鉴于目前中日韩岛屿争端有长期化的趋势，中日韩FTA从政治角度看实现的难度较大。如果必须在两者之间作出选择，日本可能优先选择TPP。
In this paper,from the perspective of international political economics, We analyze the political and economics factors which affect Japan to start FTA process, in order to judge the possibility of Japan to participate in trilateral FTA or TPP. Judging from the traditional revenue, Japan hopes to obtain economic benefits from the rapid economic development in China and South Korea, through the signing of FTA; Judging from the non-traditional revenue, considerations of the dominance, national security and interest groups, Japan has to pay attention to the signing of TPP. If Japan has to make a choice between the two, It may preferentially select TPP.
