上海合作组织成员国结构已不适应内外环境的重大变化:中俄在上海合作组织发展模式问题上结构性矛盾增大,使该组织单一内涵式发展愈加艰难;域内安全威胁的域外根源难除,使上海合作组织无法从根本上解决安全稳定问题;美国战略重心东移,提升了上海合作组织对中国的战略价值;国际垄断资本过度扩张,为上海合作组织推动建立公正、合理的世界新秩序提供了契机。上海合作组织扩员对中国经略西部意义重大,有助于构筑对华“U型睦邻友好合作带”,建设“丝绸之路经济带”和解决阿富汗问题。但是,上海合作组织扩员需要讲求策略,提前设计好规划和路线图,以不损害现有成员国根本利益为前提,需要采取措施保证扩员后上海合作组织能够继续保持运转效率,并在重大国际和地区问题以及区域经济合作中保持一致立场。
The SCO member states no longer adapt themselves to the important changes in both internal external environments:there are increasingly structural conflicts in regard of the SCO’s developmental mode,making its single connotative development increasingly difficult;the threat to intra-area security out of external sources is hard to get rid of,making it impossible for the SCO to radically solve the problems of stability and security. The Eastern move of US strategic pivot improves the SCO’s strategic value to China;and the excessive expansion of international monopolized capital provides opportunities for the SCO to drive to establish a just and reasonable new world order. The SCO’s addition of memberships is significant for China to plan on the development of its western region,facilitating the building of the U-shaped good neighborly cooperation with China and Silk Road Economic Zone,and solve Afganistan’s problems. The SCO’s expansion of memberships,however,requires taking tactic consideration,working out plans and a road map in advance without damaging the core interest of its present member states as a prerequisite,adopting measures to keep on its operational efficiency,and maintaining basic consensus on important international and regional issues.