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金融危机预警机制初探——全球金融经济危机深层思考之三

文章摘要

国际金融集团控制的资本规模大大超过了任何一个国家的金融市场。这些资本在极少数投资银行指挥下共同进退、谋求利益的行为,就是产生金融危机的直接原因。金融危机没有蒸发财富,它只是让财富快速、大规模地改变了归属。金融危机的实质是国际垄断资本鲸吞民众财富。在美元本币制度下,国际金融垄断集团鲸吞他人财富的经典程序是:扩大货币供应,让货币供给状态从充裕向过剩转化;以超低利率为工具,使投资收益大大超过资金成本,刺激起金融投机泡沫,造成资产价格大幅攀升;统一调动资金在高位套现离场,资本实现赢利目标。因此,美联储利率降至历史低点就是金融危机爆发的前兆;投资收益大大超过资金成本,金融投机猖獗就是爆发金融危机的警报;金融危机爆发的临界标志:股市、房市、汇市数值同时达到历史高位。

Abstract

The capital controlled by international financial conglomerates has far exceeded the financial market of any country. And the joint entry-exit and profit-seeking behavior of such capital manipulated by a few investment banks constitute the immediate cause for the financial crisis. The financial crisis has not caused the evaporation of wealth,but has changed the ownership of wealth in a sharp and significant way. The nature of the financial crisis is the massive misappropriation of people’s wealth by international monopoly capital. In the dollar-standard system,the classic procedure of such misappropriation works as follows:(1)expanding the currency supply so that the state of monetary supply changes from abundance to excess;(2)using ultra-low interest rates as a tool so that investment income far exceeds the cost of funds,that the bubbles of financial speculation are stimulated,and that asset price rises sharply;and(3)manipulating funds so that they can cash out and flee at a high level. Therefore,the historical lows of the American Fed’s interest rates hint at the breakout of the financial crisis;the great excess of investment income over the cost of funds and the rampant financial speculations forebode the breakout of a financial crisis;and the simultaneous record highs of stock market,real estate market and foreign exchange market is a critical signal for a forthcoming financial crisis.

作者简介
王立强:王立强,中国社会科学院世界社会主义研究中心副主任,中国社会科学院科研局副局级学术秘书、研究员。