迄今为止，朝核问题已经发生了两个重要的“质变”：一是在经历过两次核试验之后，朝鲜的核能力已经有了实质性的发展，俨然跨过了核门槛。二是军事打击的可能性被基本排除后，朝核问题由“危机”转向了常规的管理。发生质变的根本原因在于各方对朝鲜意图的误判和各方战略目标之间的冲突。短期内，朝核问题很难解决。
From 1990s to nowadays，nuclear Issue of Korean Peninsula has experienced two important qualitative changes. One is the change of DPRK’s nuclear capability. After the second nuclear test，it has nearly crossed the nuclear doorsill. The other is the change from “crisis” to “management in routine” after the possibility of military striking has been eliminated. These two changes are mainly because of the misreading of DPRK’s intentions and conflicts of strategic objects among the US，China，ROK，Russia and Japan.
| Keywords： | Nuclear Issue of Korean PeninsulaNuclear Crisis of Korean PeninsulaDPRK’s Nuclear Capability |
