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全球经济“再平衡”对东亚出口导向型增长模式的挑战

文章摘要

近期美国多次强调全球经济再平衡,东亚出口导向型经济增长模式面临不小的挑战。美国与东亚国家之间有着密切的经济联系,但美国正力图改变过去的增长模式,从依赖消费转向促进出口,并通过出口增长来刺激经济持续复苏,而弱势美元政策成为其扩大出口的重要手段。在此新形势下,东亚国家当前面临的现实压力首先来自货币升值,货币升值将削弱出口产品的价格竞争力;其次来自美国贸易保护主义政策。从中长期潜在的压力来看,美国的需求和进口减少,东亚拉动经济增长的动力将减弱;而东亚国家争夺美国以外的其他出口市场,将加剧出口竞争。

Abstract

Recently,the United States emphasized global rebalance many times.This brought several challenges to East Asian countries’ export-oriented economic growth model.The US has very close economic relationships with East Asian countries.But the US is currently trying to shift its economic growth strategy from consumption-driven to export-driven and trying to stimulate its sustainable economic recovery by increasing export.And the weaker dollar policy has become an important strategy to boost US export.Under this new circumstance,East Asian countries now face two major challenges:one is the currency appreciation,which is weakening the price advantage of East Asian countries’ export commodities;another one is the US trade protectionism.In the mid-to long-term,there are two potential challenges:first,the US reduces demand and import which will undermine the driving force of East Asian countries economic growth;second,East Asian countries look for other export markets which can substitute the US market,and it will lead more severe export competition.

作者简介
金英姬:中国社会科学院亚太研究所副研究员,博士。