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热词推荐: 能源基础设施

2011~2012年亚太形势回顾与展望

文章摘要

面对发达国家主权债务危机,亚洲经济陷入了内热外冷的尴尬境地,经济增速将不可避免地放慢,但仍然会充当全球经济的“火车头”。亚洲经济的持续高速增长正在吸引区域外大国的关注和进入。其中,美国“重返亚洲”战略最为突出,并开始进入实施阶段。这一战略的实施不仅符合美国的利益,而且也迎合了中国周边国家的骑墙战略目标。为此,中国周边环境正在进入一个空前复杂的阶段:因跨太平洋经济伙伴关系协定(TPP),中国多年来致力于推进的东亚区域经济合作进程有可能陷入停滞;区域外大国与区域内国家寻求新的利益交集;部分国家甚至借机利用区域外大国的进入侵害中国的核心利益,如南海问题;中国周边正在成为大国之间的竞技场。因而,中国需要新的理念处理好周边关系。

Abstract

On account of the shock of sovereign debt crisis, Asian economy fell into a dilemma in which external downturn risk coexist with internal inflation risk, and its growth will slow down inevitably, but it will act as an engine of global economy. Sustained growth in Asia has attracted more outsiders' attention. Washington's return to Asia strategy has been put into force in 2011. The strategy not only be in the interest of United States, but also cater to the needs of the hedge strategy in some Asian countries. As a result, China's surrounding environment is going into highly unstable phase: because of TPP, the East-Asian regional economic integration process China has pursued may stagnate; Outsiders seek new common interest with insiders in Asia; with the help of outsiders, some small Asian countries try to harm China's core interest, e.g. South-China Sea Issue; China's surrounding is becoming an arena of great powers. Thus, China needs to correctly handle contradictions with its neighbors by new idea.
作者简介
李永春:中国社会科学院亚太所助理研究员,历史学博士(北京大学,2008),主要研究领域为朝鲜半岛问题、东亚国际政治,发表“简论朝鲜通信使”,“2010年韩国政治热点问题剖析及展望”、“试论大院君时期朝鲜的对外政策”等学术论文多篇。著有《韩国人心目中的中国形象》(合著,社会科学文献出版社,2011),发表《简论朝鲜通信使》《2010年韩国政治热点问题剖析及展望》《西势东渐与日朝两国的对应》《试论大院君时期朝鲜的对外政策》《2011年中韩关系述评及展望》《简论大君外交体制》等学术论文多篇。
李向阳:中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院院长、研究员。