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我国黄金市场投资分析报告

文章摘要

2013年,国际黄金市场经历了新一轮的嬗变,黄金失去了“避险天堂”的地位,结束了持续12年的趋势性上涨行情。这是因为,一方面,以美国为代表的发达经济体经济情况持续改善,美联储决定开始缩减量化宽松规模,资产负债表扩张不再是支撑黄金价格的理由;另一方面,新兴市场表现惨淡,更凸显美元及其他风险资产的投资价值,资金持续从黄金资产流出。在众多利空因素打压下,国际现货黄金价格全年下跌28.04%。在此背景下,中国黄金市场逆势加强:交易所黄金产品成交量屡创新高、交易品种多样化、交易层次及参与主体日益丰富,中国黄金需求总量位居世界首位,占全球黄金总需求的1/4。报告回顾了2013年来国际及国内黄金市场的变化,分析了影响黄金价格的多种因素,介绍了国内黄金市场的发展及黄金交易策略,并对2014年中国黄金市场进行了展望。

Abstract

The gold market has shown extremely weakness in 2013. The uptrend of gold price which lasted twelve years is over,at least most of investors think so. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board begins tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2013 as the U.S. and Europe struggled to recover. The increase in the size of balance sheet of the central bank is no longer the strong support of gold price. On the other hand,emerging markets,especially the BRICs,were not supposed to be the saviors of the global economy any more. The good money is fleeing from the gold market,and is betting on U.S. dollar and other risk assets of advanced nations. While the gold price has slipped 28.04%,China gold market has soared:several new gold contracts are listed for trading;the gold trading volume on Exchanges strikes historical high;the consumers in China generate the largest single market demand in the whole year by some margin. This report reviews these changes in and out of China gold market,analyses the influence factors of gold price,introduces the development of domestic gold market and trading strategies,then looks forward to 2014 gold market in China.

作者简介
过蓓蓓:过蓓蓓,金融工程博士,国泰基金管理有限公司量化事业部研究员。主要研究方向:场内交易型基金及交易策略、黄金ETF及其他黄金交易品种。