2013年，我国宏观经济在经历短暂下滑后已开始缓慢回升，并逐步企稳。为遏制经济泡沫蔓延，中央延续了稳健的货币政策，并对房地产行业进行调控，虽取得了一定成效，但一、二线城市房地产价格未得到明显抑制。2014年，GDP增速将小幅回落，资金供应量也主要以盘活存量为主。在此背景下，房地产行业将进一步深化改革，土地供应量将进一步增加，并初步形成“政府管保障房，市场管改善房”的格局。总体看来，房地产行业系统性的机会已经让位于结构性的机会。一、二线城市房价上涨幅度将缩小，其他部分城市则会出现房价下跌的情况。
In 2013，China’s macroeconomic has begun a slow recovery and gradually stabilized after experiencing a brief downturn. To curb the spread of the economic bubble，the continuation of a prudent monetary policy and the regulation of the real estate industry，have made some progress，but the real estate price in a second-tier cities has not been significantly inhibited. In 2014，GDP growth will be slightly down，and the supply of funds to revitalize the stock are mainly based. Under this background，the reform will be further deepened in the real estate industry，land supply will be increased，and a pattern that “the government is responsible for affordable housing，the market managed to improve housing” will be initially formed. Overall，the real estate industry has given way to systematic opportunities for structural opportunities. The increase of housing prices in a second-tier cities will be reduced，and housing prices in some other cities will decrease.
| Keywords： | ForecastSituation AnalysisReal Estate |
