2013年中国经济处于弱势回升阶段,成长股表现抢眼,周期股承压。展望2014,改革长期利好与短期阵痛相伴,经济环境将更为复杂。鉴于此,2014年上半年我们不看好市场的整体表现,下半年是否存在机会取决于上半年的调整力度。从行业配置角度上讲,我们认为4个方向应贯穿2014年的大部分时间,它们是分别是:(1)业绩稳定:大众消费品、医疗服务;(2)周期必然:环保、能源结构调整、工业自动化、国企改革;(3)利率不敏感:军工、信息安全、安防;(4)产能调整到位:部分中游行业。
China growth stocks outperformed cyclical in 2013,given moderate expansion in economy. We expect a mixed outlook for macro in 2014 due to shortterm pains in transition alongside long-term benefits of reform. Therefore,we are cautious on A-share market in 1H14. However,we may be slightly optimistic on China’s equities in the second half if the correction in 1H14 is deep enough. Four key themes will play central roles in our sector allocation in 2014. (1) Stability of Earning,such as consumer staples and medical services;(2) Positioning in the future growth cycle,pointing to environment protection,alternative energy,industrial automation and SOE reform;(3) Lower sensitivity to interest rate hikes,such as defense industry,information security and security & surveillance;(4) Certain sectors with lower overcapacity pressure,mostly in midstream industry.
Keywords: | Investment2014ReformA-share Market |