2013年,世界经济缓慢复苏,美日等国表现抢眼,欧洲经济走出衰退泥潭。全球货币环境宽松,资本市场“北强南弱”。中国经济稳中有进,结构调整取得进展,货币政策环境趋紧,出现了“钱荒”,资本市场继续下跌。展望2014年,全球经济将继续温和复苏,新兴市场经济下行压力较大。中国经济已从高速增长阶段进入中速增长阶段,未来增速还将缓慢下降,很难恢复到两位数。预计2014年,中国经济增速与2013年持平。我们预测,中国将在2027年超越美国,成为全球第一大经济体。
Reviewing 2013,the world economy has undergone slow recovery. The economies of the United States and Japan were both performing exceptionally well,while the European economy has recuperated from its recession quagmire. With an easing global monetary market,the Northern capital markets of developed countries stayed to be strong while the Southern capital markets of developing countries were comparatively weak. Maintaining a steady growth,the Chinese economy has made a progress in its structural alteration. On the other hand,the tightening monetary policy has resulted in a “currency shortage” which caused the indexes of capital markets to drop continually.
Looking forward to 2014,the global economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery. The economies of emerging markets are expected to suffer increasing stress of descent. The Chinese economy has shifted from the stage of rapid growth to moderate growth. The growth rate of the Chinese economy is anticipated to decline slowly in the coming foreseeable future and a double-digit growth rate will be hardly achieved. In short,the economic growth of China in 2014 is expected to be similar to that in 2013. Nevertheless,China is predicted to overtake the United States in around 2027 and become the world’s largest economy.
Keywords: | ForecastGlobal EconomyReview |