2013年,我国股票市场弱势震荡,但创业板表现抢眼;债券市场规模扩大但陷入熊市,商品期货成交量和成交额均创新高。VC/PE有所回暖,公募基金总体正增长但平均规模骤降。房地产投资和房价持续走高。信托规模首破10万亿元但增速下降,银行理财收益率走高。展望2014年,在宏观经济持平或略有下降、改革具体方案渐进实施、流动性紧平衡的背景下,预计股票市场或略有上涨,债券市场和商品市场持续低迷;房地产价格涨幅收窄;银行理财与信托收益率略有升高;私募股权投资市场或将随IPO重启而复苏。
A-Share Market oscillated in 2013 with weakly downward trend,though Second-board Market soared. The debt market has drawn an inverted U-shape curve,ending in bear market with a bigger size. Trading Volume and turnover of the commodity market went historically high. VE/PE began to pick up slowly. Mutual funds,as a whole,earned positive return,while average size of new issued funds decreased. Both real estate investment and house prices continually increased. Total assets of the trust industry exceeded 10 trillion yuan,but the growth rate of newly issued trust plans dropped sharply. Bank financial products’ return has been climbing up. In 2014,under the background of macroeconomic slight decline,reform deepening,and liquidity tight balance,we expect a slight rise in the stock market. Bond market and commodity market would continue downturn. House price might go up in moderate pace. The yields of financial products sold by commercial banks,as well as that of trust products,are expected to ascend. Thank to re-opening of IPO,venture capital and private equity market will recover.
Keywords: | OutlookInvestment MarketReview |