2006年以来全球范围内出现通货膨胀压力加剧的趋势，这是全球化提速后第一次真正意义上的通货膨胀。从理论上而言，全球化有助于降低各国的通货膨胀率。然而随着中国、印度等大国更紧密地融入全球经济，可能出现核心通胀率与整体通胀率之间的显著背离。此外，全球流动性过剩也是导致全球通货膨胀的重要原因。本文从实体因素层面和金融因素层面剖析了本轮全球通货膨胀的根源，并对其未来发展趋势进行了预测。全球通胀的未来走势存在相当大的不确定性，而发达国家央行能否及时调整货币政策对于全球经济而言至关重要。
World economy has been facing increasing inflation pressure since 2006，which is the first round of inflation in the era of the new wave of globalization. Theoretically，globalization helps to ease inflation. However，as the large developing countries such as China and India integrate into the world economy，there will be an increasing gap between core inflation and headline inflation. Moreover，global excess liquidity has been pushing up global inflation rate. This paper analyzes the roots of current global inflation from the aspects of both real economy and monetary economy，and predicts its trend in the foreseeable future which is full of uncertainties. Whether central banks of developed countries adjust their monetary policy in response to uncertain development of global inflation is of vital importance to world economy.
