文章摘要
气候变化已得到科学上的确证,而且它比以往预想的更为严重。伴随《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》的签署以及“巴厘岛路线图”的通过,国际社会确定了应对气候变化的基本原则,国际气候制度初步形成。但是,降低碳排放与现行经济发展模式的内在矛盾,以及减排责任分担导致的各国发展空间竞争形成了人类减缓气候变化的严重困境。虽然国际社会在哥本哈根会议上达成新减排协议的可能性较大,但是,理想的中期减排目标难以实现,人类应对气候变化的形势仍然十分严峻。中国政府应该抓住机遇,通过积极推动低碳经济发展来实现经济增长方式的重大转变。
Abstract
Climate change has been confirmed by serious scientific research. More over,it is more serious than people's former expectation,which means the mitigation of climate change has been the most significant challenge in the 21th century. With the signing of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol,as well as the agreement of Bali Roadmap,an international regime to cope with climate change is emerging gradually. The trade-off between reduction of carbon emission and economic growth,as well as the international competition caused by allocation of carbon emission,lead to serious difficulties in dealing with climate change. Although a new agreement will be likely to be reached in the COP15,the ambitious medium-term goal is very difficult to be achieved,indicating that human beings will still face a severe situation in the mitigation of climate change. Chinese government should grasp the opportunity and try to achieve the transformation of economic development pattern by positively dealing with climate change.
作者简介
刘东民:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,国际金融室主任。本科及硕士就读于清华大学自动化系和技术经济与能源系统分析研究所,获工学学士学位和管理学硕士学位,后转学金融,获中国社会科学院财贸经济系金融学博士学位。主持和承担中央及地方政府、金融机构、国家自然科学基金、国家社会科学基金等课题30余项,多项政策建议得到中央和地方政府批复和采纳,是财政部亚投行内部咨询专家。在《世界经济与政治》《国际经济评论》《财贸经济》等权威与核心期刊发表论文多篇,出版学术专著2部。2016年获得中国新兴经济体研究会论文三等奖。