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俄罗斯与上海合作组织

文章摘要

2012年俄罗斯形势总体保持稳定。第六届国家杜马和总统大选结束后,普京为了应对俄罗斯政治生态出现的新变化,采取了一系列政治体制改革措施,但是这些措施并没有真正增强政治竞争性,国家权力结构也没有出现实质性变化,政局保持稳定。从经济形势看,在油价保持高位的情况下,2012年俄罗斯经济保持了增长,宏观经济情况好于预期。在国际关系层面,俄罗斯2012年重返亚太的态势明显。从俄美关系上看,双方既非盟友也非敌人的特征长期存在。俄美关系是一个霸权守成国与新兴崛起国之间如何相处的问题。双方的结构性矛盾与全球化时代相互依赖的现实互为影响因素,造成了俄美之间既合作又斗争的关系。俄罗斯认为上合组织作为确保地区安全与稳定关键因素的地位已经确立,认为上合组织拥有良好而远大的前景。

Abstract

The situation of Russia has maintained a general stability in 2012. In the wake of the 6th Duma Election and the Presidential Election, Putin adopted a series of political reforms in order to handle new changes taking place in the political ecology of Russia. But those reform measures did not actually increase the political competitions in Russia, neither did any substantial change occur in the state power structure, and the political situation has remained stable. From the perspective of economic situation, due to high oil prices, the Russian economy has continued its growth in 2012, the situation of macro-economy turned out better than expected. In terms of international relations, Russian in 2012 showed a clear posture of returning to Asia-Pacific. As to Russian-US relationship, it is well characterized as one of an enduring state of both non-ally and non-adversary. The Russian-US relation is about how a mature hegemonic power and a newly rising power deal with each other. The structural conflicts between the two powers and the mutually depending reality in the era of globalization are both influencing factors, and created this both confronting and cooperating relationship between Russia and US. Russia believes that SCO's position as the key guarantor of regional security and stability has been firmly established, and SCO has a broad and bright future.
Keywords: RussiaSCOPutin
作者简介
庞大鹏:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长、研究员。