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法国政局动荡背后的政治危机与政体危机

文章摘要

本文聚焦2024年法国政局动荡,以巴尼耶政府倒台及贝鲁上任总理为切入点,探讨法国当前局势背后究竟是单纯的政治危机,还是第五共和国政体本身正面临的深层次危机。文章回顾了巴尼耶任命、政府倒台、贝鲁上台及2025年预算通过等关键事件,分析了马克龙与议会关系的演变、财政赤字压力下的政策困境,以及左翼与中右翼政党内部重组的动向。本文认为,当前的动荡不仅反映出政府在议会失去绝对多数后的行动脆弱性,更揭示了第五共和国制度设计在新时代政治多极化背景下的结构性失效,法国正从一场政治危机逐步走向政体危机。

Abstract

This paper focuses on the political turmoil in France in 2024,using the fall of Prime Minister Barnier’s government and the appointment of François Bayrou as key events to explore whether France is merely undergoing a political crisis or facing a deeper regime crisis under the Fifth Republic. It reviews the nomination of Barnier,the collapse of his government,the rise of Bayrou,and the passage of the 2025 budget,analyzing the evolving relationship between President Macron and Parliament,the challenges posed by fiscal deficits,and the reconfiguration of left-wing and center-right parties. The paper argues that the ongoing instability not only reflects the vulnerability of a government lacking an absolute parliamentary majority but also exposes the structural dysfunction of the Fifth Republic’s institutions in an era of increasing political fragmentation,marking the shift from a political crisis to a regime crisis.

作者简介
张钰韬:张钰韬,中国欧洲学会法国研究分会会员。