受全球经济增速放缓和美联储货币政策不确定性影响,2024年亚太经济增长有所放缓。全面关税前的“抢出口”效应使得2025年上半年经济保持韧性,但随着美国关税政策以及不确定性的持续冲击,亚太地区下半年增速预计略低于上半年。亚太地区17个国家在2025年的加权平均经济增速预计为4.6%,略高于2024年,比全球经济增速高1.4个百分点。同时,紧缩货币政策滞后效应、全球供应链的持续改善带动亚太地区的通货膨胀率持续下行;在美元降息周期和美债收益率下行情况下的美元相对弱势,推动亚太地区多数经济体货币对美元升值;各国经常账户受美国关税政策的影响出现分化,对欧美需求依赖度较高使得部分国家经常账户恶化,能源转型、转出口和国际旅游业复苏带动部分国家经常账户改善。展望2026年,亚太经济增长面临诸多风险和挑战,特别是美国关税政策的不确定性和中美科技脱钩,将从贸易和金融等渠道给区域内经济增长带来冲击;但是宽松的货币政策和低通货膨胀下国内需求的稳健增长、财政政策推动的绿色能源转型和数字经济发展以及区域贸易协定的推进都将继续拉动本区域经济增长,使其在全球经济增长进程中继续扮演积极角色。
Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region slowed in 2024 against the backdrop of global economic deceleration and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Front-loading effects ahead of comprehensive tariffs sustained economic resilience in the first half of 2025. However,growth in the second half of the year is expected to be slightly weaker due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and ongoing uncertainties. The weighted average economic growth rate of 17 Asia-Pacific countries is projected to be 4.6% in 2025,slightly higher than in 2024 and 1.4 percentage points above the global economic growth rate. Meanwhile,the lagged effects of monetary tightening and continued improvements in global supply chains are driving a sustained decline in inflation across the Asia-Pacific region. The relative weakness of the U.S. dollar,amid interest rate cuts and declining U.S. Treasury yields,has led to the appreciation of most Asia-Pacific currencies against the dollar. Current account balances have diverged,primarily influenced by U.S. tariff policies,countries heavily reliant on demand from Europe and the United States have seen their current accounts deteriorate,while energy transition,re-export activities,and the recovery of international tourism have improved current accounts in other economies. Looking ahead to 2026,the Asia-Pacific economy faces multiple risks and challenges,particularly uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the technological decoupling between the U.S. and China. These factors are expected to impact regional economic growth through trade and financial channels. However,robust domestic demand supported by accommodative monetary policies and low inflation,fiscal initiatives promoting green energy transition and digital economic development,and the advancement of regional trade agreements will bolster the region’s economy. These factors will enable the Asia-Pacific to continue playing a positive role in global economic growth.